IMF says Saudi Arabia's economy resilient to shocks

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's flag

Saudi Arabia’s economy has shown strong resilience to shocks, with robust non-oil growth, contained inflation, and record-low unemployment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

Despite heightened uncertainty and lower commodity prices, non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow above 3.5% over the medium term, supported by government-led projects, Vision 2030 initiatives, and major international events, the IMF said in its 2025 Article IV consultation.

Real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 3.9% by 2026, supported by the continued phase-out of OPEC+ production cuts.

The IMF noted that reserve buffers remain appropriate. Current account deficits are expected to be financed through deposit withdrawals, less FX accumulation abroad, and higher external borrowing.

Given the current heightened global uncertainty, pursuing a countercyclical fiscal stance is crucial, the IMF said.

It stressed the need to manage strong credit growth to mitigate risks to systemic financial stability, while structural reforms remain essential to sustain non-oil growth and advance diversification.

The IMF executive directors said higher oil output or additional investments linked to Vision 2030 would support growth and oil prices could rise if global recovery gains momentum or in the case of supply disruptions.