IEA lowers forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026

IEA, meanwhile, raised forecast on global oil demand growth in 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 while lowering outlook for supply growth in its latest monthly oil market report, signaling a smaller market surplus next year.

In its December report, released today, on Dec. 11, the agency stated that global oil demand is expected to increase by around 830,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, with growth projected to maintain its momentum in 2026, as forecasts were revised upward to 860,000 bpd year-on-year (YoY).

Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 3.84 million bpd in 2026, compared with a surplus of 4.09 million bpd estimated in the November report, IEA said in its latest update.

The IEA also revised its demand outlook for this year and next year upward, citing an improved macroeconomic prospects and a “largely diminished concern over tariffs,” Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, the agency expects supply growth to be slightly lower than previously anticipated for both the current year and the next, due to the impact of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan exports.

The IEA further adjusted its forecast for global supply growth in 2025 downward by 100,000 bpd, to three million bpd, and lowered its 2026 projection by 20,000 bpd, to 2.4 million bpd.

Total global supply is now expected to reach 106.2 million bpd in 2025 and 108.6 million bpd in 2026.