IMF raises global growth forecast for 2026

The IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.3%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.3%, up from its previous estimate of 3.1% issued in October, saying a surge in investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has offset pressures from trade disputes.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said the global economy has begun to move past the tariff shocks of 2025, as companies rerouted supply chains alongside trade agreements that reduced average US tariffs from 25% to about 18.5%.

In an update to its World Economic Outlook released on Monday, the IMF attributed the upward revision to large inflows of investment into technology infrastructure, particularly in North America and Asia, which have boosted asset values and raised expectations for productivity gains.

Global inflation is expected to continue easing to 3.8% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025, before slowing further to 3.4% in 2027, the report said. The fund added that moderating price pressures would give central banks room to adopt more accommodative monetary policies, supporting economic activity.

The IMF estimated that AI-related productivity gains could lift global growth by up to 0.3 percentage points in 2026, and by between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points annually over the medium term, depending on the pace of technology adoption and countries’ readiness.