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Etihad Etisalat Co.’s (Mobily) is unlikely to see a major change in bottom-line anytime soon unless it can undo the impact of subscriber cancellations due to the fingerprinting system, Al Rajhi Capital said in an earnings review on Sunday.
Mobily, the kingdom’s second-largest telecom operator, reported a third-quarter net loss of SAR 168 million, versus Al Rajhi and consensus estimates of around SAR 12 million net profit.
Meanwhile, revenue came in at SAR 2.9 billion, lower than the brokerage’s estimate of SAR 3.3 million.
“While we were expecting a moderate decline in subscribers post fingerprint regulation exercise (offset partially by Hajj season), the results are indicative of a 10-15 percent decline in subscribers,” analysts at Al Rajhi said.
Mobily’s Q3 results show that it could take a while to shake off its past woes, particularly given a tougher macroeconomic environment, lower disposable income and increased competition in the kingdom. Moreover, the operator has been losing more ground compared to peers as a result of cancellations from the fingerprinting exercise.
While the company still remains cash flow positive, it could see capex cuts going forward, which would also likely escalate a need for a tower-sharing arrangement.
“We also expect the company to launch a lot of newer products with aggressive pricing to gain back some market share to soothe investor sentiments, impact of which could be reflected in Q4,” the report said.
However, given market conditions and a reduced subscriber base, the firm said it will revisit its estimates after the publication of detailed financials, and keep the stock ‘Under Review’ for now.
“Post Q3, we will revise our subscriber base assumptions for the company, and given the recent austerity measures and overall weaker macro environment, we are likely to see weaker growth, from a lower base,” Al Rajhi concluded, adding that competition is likely to intensify going forward, with challenging times for Mobily and the telecom sector to persist.
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