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Al Rajhi Capital expects Saudi Arabia’s telecom sector to return to “normalized performance” in Q4 after two quarters of uncertainty due to new regulatory measures that led to higher cost and lower number of subscribers.
The brokerage firm revised estimates from its October review. It’s now “neutral” on STC and Mobily and has Zain on “under review” after the management change. STC’s new target price is up to SAR 72 from SAR 70, and SAR 27 for Mobily.
“Unlike the last quarter, we expect no major one-offs this quarter. After the resolution of the arbitration between Mobily and Zain, both the companies expect no impact from the outcome on Q4 earnings,’’ analysts noted in the report.
“Post the Hajj season and cancellation of subscribers in Q3, we expect no major shift in subscriber base for the companies.”
The analysts added that with no major quarter-on quarter-growth in revenue, Mobily will likely see “flattish net income in Q4 as cost savings and lower amortization offset sharp boost from zakat/other items” in Q3.
Zain will accelerate towards net profit breakeven with the help of new amortization schedule, while upside potential for STC—though limited— would be from an increase in Q4 dividends above SAR 1/share, which is possible given the company's strong balance sheet and cash flow generation, according to Al Rajhi Capital.
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