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Petrochemical spreads declined in the month of January, as feedstock costs rose more than the increase across product prices, Al Rajhi Capital said in a report on Tuesday.
“Going forward, though spreads may not narrow significantly in the coming months, Q1 and Q2 margins are likely to be lower on a sequential basis,” the brokerage added.
Feedstock costs were higher in January, with naphtha prices rising 3.3 percent month-on-month (MoM) in January.
As for natural gas liquids (NGLs), state-owned Saudi Aramco hiked propane and butane prices for February to their highest levels in over two years, at $510/ton (+17.2 percent MoM) and $600/ton (21.2 percent) respectively.
“NGLs are likely to be capped by naphtha prices as some of the Asian and European petchem firms have crackers that can switch feedstock between naphtha and NGLs,” Al Rajhi Capital said, noting that it does not see much upside for either naphtha or NGL.
Meanwhile, product prices were mixed in January with ethylene and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) almost unchanged MoM, while other polymer products such as low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and polypropylene moderately increased.
Prices of benzene and styrene, however, increased significantly MoM.
As most petchem firms have already reached Al Rajhi Capital’s target prices (TP), limited upside is seen at the current level unless product prices and/or spread rise further, the note added.
Based on the brokerage’s tracker model, Saudi Arabian Fertilizers Co. (SAFCO) is expected to trade higher in the short-term on positive divergence due to improving urea prices.
Meanwhile Advanced Petrochemical Co. could move downward due to declining spread on higher NGLs prices.
“While we reiterate our ratings and target prices for most covered companies, we revise our TP upward for Yansab (SAR58 /share) and SAFCO (SAR62 /share) on improving monoethylene glycol (MEG) and urea prices, respectively,” Al Rajhi Capital said.
Al Rajhi Capital’s ratings on Saudi petchems |
||||
Company |
Recommendation |
Target price (SAR/share) |
||
Previous |
New |
Previous |
New |
|
SABIC |
Neutral |
Neutral |
97.0 |
97.0 |
Yansab |
Neutral |
Neutral |
55.0 |
58.0 |
SAFCO |
Underweight |
Underweight |
60.0 |
62.0 |
Advanced |
Neutral |
Neutral |
46.0 |
46.0 |
Tasnee |
Neutral |
Neutral |
15.8 |
15.8 |
Sipchem |
Overweight |
Neutral |
20.4 |
20.4 |
Related News
SABIC may outperform despite softening spreads, says Al Rajhi Cap |
Saudi Aramco hikes propane, butane prices for February |
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