IEA sees global refining hitting record

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday raised its 2025 supply growth forecast after OPEC+ agreed to lift output but cut its demand outlook on weaker consumption in major economies.

Global refining throughput is expected to hit a record 85.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the agency said in its monthly report, with third-quarter runs up 1.6 million bpd from a year earlier, far above the 130,000 bpd average annual increase in the first half.

The IEA now expects global oil demand to grow by 680,000 bpd in 2025, the weakest pace since 2019, amid disappointing consumption in China, India, and Brazil. That compares with its earlier forecast of a 704,000 bpd increase.

Higher September production targets set by OPEC+ are expected to boost global supply growth to 2.5 million bpd this year, up from the previous estimate of 2.1 million bpd.

The agency reiterated that global oil demand is likely to stop growing by the end of this decade as countries shift from fossil fuels to electric vehicles.