Goldman Sachs: Brent could average above $100 if Hormuz closure persists

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $82 a barrel in Q3 and $80 Q4

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to exceed $100 a barrel on average in the second half of the year if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month.

Following a ceasefire agreement, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note that the situation remains volatile, pointing to remarks by US Vice President JD Vance describing the truce as “fragile.”

The bank’s base case assumes oil flows through Hormuz will begin to rise gradually over the weekend, followed by a steady recovery in Gulf exports over a month to pre-war levels.

Under this scenario, Brent is projected to average $82 a barrel in Q3 2026 and $80 in the final three months of the year.