Oil volatility hinges on Hormuz, talks outcome: Analysts

Oil markets are experiencing relative stability near $95–$97 per barrel, amid indications that the US and Iran may move toward extending the ceasefire and resuming talks. This reflects markets increasingly pricing in de-escalation scenarios, despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Several analysts told Argaam that the market is currently moving under the influence of real supply constraints, while continuing to factor in a war premium. At the same time, there is cautious optimism about the possibility of reaching diplomatic solutions. However, continued pressure on supply is keeping prices underpinned at elevated levels.