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The outlook for Savola Group remains mixed in 2017, Al-Rajhi Capital said in a recent note.
Savola’s fourth-quarter net loss of SAR 964 million was mainly attributed to one-offs, including inventory write-down, impairment of investments, and devaluation of Egyptian pound.
The magnitude of such charges, which may recur in the future, will not be material as inventory levels have been mostly normalized after the extended promotions and discounted sales over the last quarter.
“Further, fall in LFL (like-for-like) sales in the retail segment, closure of Pandati stores, currency devaluation and increased competition in food segment also weighed on earnings in 2016,” the brokerage firm added.
More asset impairments are unlikely in the near term, as the edible oil producer saw impairment of some associates and available-for-sale investments along with goodwill markdowns in its Egypt unit, which implied a combined impact of SAR 517 million in Q4-2016.
The impact from the Egyptian currency float and earnings volatility from FX-related losses or gains is also expected to be lower.
Accordingly, Savola’s revenue and earnings may normalize going forward, Al-Rajhi Capital added.
Capital expenses will likely come below SAR 1 billion this year, which will help accelerate deleveraging.
Meanwhile, the company is forecast to see slower store footprint expansion, until its retail segment’s transformation initiative starts to pay off in Q2-2017.
Al-Rajhi Capital maintained its “neutral” rating on the stock, but cut its target price to SAR 36.80 from SAR 37.40.
“Turnaround of retail segment and margin uptick in food segment will be the key re-rating catalysts for Savola,” the note added.
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