Al Ghais says OPEC forecast is realistic, talk of weak demand inaccurate

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the group bases its forecasts on real market data and analysis, adding that some institutions are over-cutting their estimates for oil demand growth.

“OPEC builds its projections on realistic data and accurate analysis,” Al Ghais told Asharq Business with Bloomberg, adding he expects some other forecasters will have to revise their estimates higher in line with actual market conditions reflected in OPEC data.

Commenting on the decision to freeze production increases in Q1 next year, Al Ghais said the move was driven by seasonal refinery maintenance, adding: “I prefer not to use the term ‘weak demand’ to describe these natural fluctuations.”

He said current market stability reflects coordinated policies within OPEC+, which holds regular meetings to assess supply and demand and take decisions that support market balance. He praised the “sacrifices” of the eight countries participating in the agreement, saying they had a direct impact in limiting price volatility.

OPEC expects global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which supports a positive outlook for oil demand despite ongoing trade tensions between major economies such as China and the United States, Al Ghais said.

The organization forecasts global oil demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and next, supported by faster economic activity in China and India, he added.