Trump tariffs may slow growth but recession unlikely: IMF

Uncertainty over global trade policies is “off the charts”, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva warned today, April 17, noting that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs were set to hit global growth and push up prices.

Ahead of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, Georgieva said trade tensions and a shift in the global trade order would push the IMF to cut its growth outlook.

“These disruptions are not likely to cause a recession,” she noted. But Trump’s tariff threats and expected retaliation from China and the EU have triggered deep uncertainty and market volatility, she further stated.

Georgieva said the rising uncertainty is adding pressure to financial stability, pointing to US debt yield swings as a red flag.

The IMF is set to update its World Economic Outlook on April 22. In January, it projected global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026.