Goldman Sachs says gold could surge to $5,000 if Fed credibility falters

Goldman Sachs analysts warn a loss of Fed independence would likely fuel inflation

Goldman Sachs said gold could climb to around $5,000 an ounce if the Federal Reserve’s credibility is damaged and investors shift even a small portion of their Treasury holdings into the metal.

In a note cited by Bloomberg, the bank’s analysts said a loss of Fed independence would likely fuel inflation, weigh on equities and long-dated bonds, and erode the dollar’s status as a reserve currency. Gold, they added, serves as a store of value that does not rely on institutional trust.

Goldman laid out several scenarios for the metal’s path. Its base case sees prices rising to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026, while another scenario projects a rally to $4,500.

The bank said gold could reach $5,000 if just 1% of private holdings in US Treasuries flow into bullion, assuming other conditions remain stable.

Gold has been one of the year’s best-performing commodities, gaining more than a third and hitting fresh records this week as a global bond sell-off gathers pace and US President Donald Trump’s pressure on the Fed raises concerns about its independence.