BP sees oil demand growth until 2030

BP said on Thursday it expects global oil demand to grow until 2030, five years later than its forecast a year ago, pointing to slowed efforts to increase energy efficiency and reduce global carbon emissions.

The oil major's latest Energy Outlook, an annual study of energy trends through 2050, models two scenarios.

The "Current Trajectory" scenario is based on existing policies and pledges. Its "Below 2-Degrees" scenario, a reference to the aim of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius in line with Paris Agreement goals, envisions about a 90% drop in carbon emissions by 2050 from 2023 levels.

Global oil demand is expected to hit 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 in BP's Current Trajectory, before falling to 83 million bpd by 2050.

In its Below 2-Degrees scenario, oil demand peaks this year at 102.2 million bpd before falling to 33.8 million bpd by 2050.

In terms of emissions, BP expects carbon dioxide emissions to remain relatively stable until 2030 in the first scenario, before declining by about 25% by 2050, while in the second scenario, emissions will decline by 90% by mid-century.