Morgan Stanley raises oil price forecasts after OPEC+ decision

Morgan Stanley increased its near-term outlook for US crude prices after OPEC+ decided to pause production hikes in the first quarter of next year.

The firm raised its forecast for Brent crude in H1 2026 to $60 per barrel, up from $57.5.

According to Bloomberg, analysts said while the OPEC+ decision does not change their production outlook, it sends an important signal that volatility tends to ease with the group’s coordination. They added that there remains a large gap between the alliance’s quotas and actual output.

The bank estimates a 500,000 bpd increase in OPEC+ output between March and October, well below the 2.6 million bpd in announced quota increases.

Morgan Stanley also expects the oil market surplus to stabilize in H2 2027, with prices rising again to around $65 per barrel during that period.