S&P expect Saudi banks to provide $75B new corporate loans in 2025-26

S&P Global expects Saudi banks to provide $65–75 billion in new corporate loans annually in 2025–2026 (244–281 billion riyals), driven mainly by demand from the real estate and utilities sectors.

In a recent report, the rating agency said that TASI-companies — including unrated firms — will need to refinance or repay $45–55 billion in debt between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, compared with about $54 billion in 2024.

Total capital spending by listed Saudi companies is forecast to remain between $85–95 billion during 2025–2027, versus roughly $85 billion in 2024, signaling sustained demand for bank lending and cross-border issuance.

S&P Global added that corporate capex requirements will stay elevated. While some investments may be funded by internal cash flows, demand for bank financing will remain strong, and higher funding needs are expected to support corporate capital-market activity.

Around 90% of projected capex is tied to spending by companies directly or indirectly owned by government entities, which is expected to support financing requirements.

Non-oil corporate capex will also stay high in line with Vision 2030 goals, with total spending by listed companies supported by investments in materials, telecoms, and utilities.

The agency said refinancing risks are largely manageable for rated Saudi corporates, as state-owned companies — which enjoy easier access to bank and capital-market funding — account for nearly all debt maturing in 2025.

Short-term debt among non-state-owned companies is also rising. As of 2024, S&P Global estimates that debt maturities of state-owned listed companies represented roughly half of 2025 obligations and will account for about 60–65% of maturities between 2026 and 2029.