Fitch cuts oil price forecasts amid global supply surplus

Fitch Ratings expects Brent crude prices to average around $69 per barrel this year.

Fitch Ratings lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025–2027, citing a global supply surplus and anticipating production growth outpacing modest demand increases.

In its report released Wednesday, the agency projected Brent crude prices to average around $69 per barrel this year, down from $70 in its previous forecast, and falling further to $63 per barrel in 2026, compared with $65 previously.

Fitch also forecast that WTI crude would average $64 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel next year, down from prior estimates of $65 and $60, respectively.

The agency expects global oil demand to grow by roughly 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 2026, noting that demand rose by 900,000 bpd in the third quarter of this year.

On the supply side, Fitch cited International Energy Agency projections of global production rising by 3.1 million bpd this year and an additional 2.5 million bpd in 2026, with a significant contribution from non-OPEC+ producers.