EIA: OPEC+ output policy to limit drop in oil prices

The EIA raised its forecast for average oil prices this year

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for average oil prices this year, saying OPEC+ production policy and continued stockpiling by China will limit price declines in the coming months.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projected Brent crude would average $68.91 a barrel this year, up 0.2% from its previous forecast, while US crude is expected to average $65.32 a barrel, up 0.3%.

The agency expects global oil inventories to continue rising through 2026, with Brent crude prices falling to an average of $55 a barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and remaining near that level for the rest of the year.

US oil production forecasts for 2025 were raised by 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) to an average of 13.61 million bpd, a record high, while total US production in 2026 was lowered by 50,000 bpd to 13.53 million bpd.

Global oil production forecasts were also increased by 0.2% to 106.2 million bpd this year, with EIA estimates for OPEC+ output rising 0.3% to 43.7 million bpd.

The December report showed a slight downward revision in global oil consumption, now expected to rise to 103.9 million bpd in 2025, up from 102.8 million bpd last year.