Goldman Sachs cuts oil price forecasts after ceasefire

Oil drilling rigs

Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecasts for the second quarter of 2026 after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.

The US bank said it expects Brent crude to average $90 per barrel in Q2, down from a previous estimate of $99, and revised its forecast for WTI crude to $87 from $91, according to a note published on Wednesday.

"Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge ⁠down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI," the bank noted.

Goldman's third- and fourth‑quarter oil price forecasts were at $82 and $80 for Brent and $77 and $75 for WTI, respectively.

The bank said risks to its price forecasts remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the potential for longer‑lasting disruptions and more persistent crude production losses.