IEA cuts forecasts for global oil supply, demand growth

IEA forecast global oil supply to fall by 1.5 million bpd in 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply lowered its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, expecting both to fall below the 2025 levels, citing the impact of the Middle East war on oil flows and its drag on the global economy.

The agency expects global oil demand to decrease by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, compared with projections for annual growth of 640,000 bpd in its previous monthly report.

In its April report released today, April 14, the IEA forecast global oil supply to fall by 1.5 million bpd this year, versus earlier expectations of a 1.1 million bpd increase last month.

It added that attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, along with Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have triggered the largest ever oil supply disruptions, with losses reaching 10.1 million bpd in March.

Global refining throughput is projected to decline by one million bpd this year to 82.9 million bpd, even as middle distillate margins hit record highs.