S&P Global slashes oil demand growth forecast by 64%

S&P Global lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), citing the repercussions of the military conflict between the US and Iran, which has caused widespread disruptions to energy supply chains.

S&P Global consultant Ethan Ng stated that global oil demand growth is expected to shrink by approximately 63.6% to just 400,000 bpd. This compares to pre-war projections of 1.1 million bpd, Reuters reported today, April 23.

Oil demand is also likely to drop sharply in the Middle East and Asia during the second quarter of this year. This comes as approximately 178 oil refineries, representing about 40% of global refining capacity, have been impacted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.