Goldman Sachs sees oil output recovery in few months after war end

Goldman Sachs warns prolonged conflict could delay oil recovery

Goldman Sachs expects crude output to return to pre-war levels within a few months. However, it warned that a prolonged conflict could significantly delay the recovery.

The bank estimates Middle East production losses at around 14.5 million barrels per day, noting that most of the disruption stems from precautionary shutdowns and inventory management rather than physical damage to oil fields.

It added that the lost output accounts for more than half of the region’s pre-war production—around 75%. If Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict ends, production could rebound relatively quickly.

However, extended well shutdowns may reduce flow rates, requiring maintenance before full output resumes. The longer the curtailment lasts, the slower the recovery.