The Saudi economy is forecast to witness wide-range recovery in 2021, despite the unclear vision over the COVID-19 outbreak and its unforeseen repercussions on the non-oil economy, Jadwa Investment said in a new report.
The Saudi economy is also expected to see a gradual rebound on a quarterly basis in Q4 2020 and 2021 and will likely gain momentum by H2 2021, the consultancy added.
Jadwa revised up its FY2020 estimates for the Kingdom’s non-oil gross domestic product (GDP), backed by lower-than-expected pace of decline in Q2 2020, and a faster growth momentum in Q3 2020.
The report expects non-oil GDP to drop by 2.7%, compared to 3% previously, as recovery will be buoyed by better-than-expected performance of the non-oil private sector.
Total GDP is estimated to fall by 3.6%, compared to 3.7% in previous forecast, the report noted.
“Main downside risks are the outbreak of the coronavirus second wave in the Kingdom, before the production of a vaccine or a delay in the planned time framework,” Jadwa indicated.
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