Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for Brent crude by $10 per barrel to $130 and $120 for the third and fourth quarters, respectively, given a greater deficit this year due to lower supply from Russia and Iran.
In a note issued on April 21, the US bank sees a deficit of nearly one million barrels per day (bpd) persisting through 2022.
Morgan Stanley increased its estimates for the daily Russian crude and condensate production losses to two million barrels, up from one million barrels previously, because of a widespread boycott of its products following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russian production already fell by around 900,000 pbd in the first half of April, earlier than expected, the bank stated.
The bank cut its oil demand growth forecast to 2.7 million bpd this year from 3.4 million pbd previously.
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