How did global markets fare in H1 2025?

Eighty-eight major international indices posted gains in the first half of 2025, while 24 declined, an Argaam study of 112 key global markets showed.

Monetary tightening policy eased and inflation rates neared central banks’ target levels in the six-month period, in turn offering support for the markets’ positive performance.

US markets led the global rally, soaring to record highs driven by expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, abating global trade tensions, and a rise in tech sector indices. However, US markets experienced sharp volatility in early June due to military escalation between Israel and Iran, which led to a temporary decline in the main indices.

European markets saw moderate gains on easing energy crises and improved economic data in some major economies. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) accommodative monetary policy – cutting interest rates eight times over a year – helped inject liquidity and stabilize markets, despite weak industrial demand.

The US Dollar Index declined by around 11% in H1 2025, recording its worst performance in nearly five decades. It ended June at 96.88 points, mainly impacted by trade policies involving trade tariffs.

Among commodities, crude oil experienced high volatility in H1 2025. Prices rose above $80 per barrel amid concerns over supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the region. However, they declined to end the period down by 9% at $66.74 per barrel following a complete end to the war, which eased geopolitical fears.

Oil prices had a direct impact on markets and companies, as higher prices earlier in the year supported energy stocks, while the subsequent decline negatively affected the sector.

Gold reached a record high during the first half of the year, surpassing $3,500 per ounce due to increased investor demand as a key safe-haven asset.

Top Performing Markets

Venezuela’s stock market was the top performer globally, with gains exceeding 200% in H1 2025, driven by investors turning to equities amid high inflation and continued depreciation of the local currency. Morocco’s market ranked 11th with a 24% gain, supported by improved agricultural and industrial production and economic growth.

Worst Performing Indices

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) ranked 13th among global decliners as it fell 7% on investor concerns over the recent regional turmoil. Three other Arab markets fell on the red list, including Bahrain All Share Index (BHBX) at 20th position after retreating by 2%.

The table below shows the performance of Arab and GCC indices in H1 2025:

The table below shows the performance of other global indices in H1 2025: