Saudi debt market to surpass $600B in 2026: Fitch

Bashar Al-Natoor, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Fitch Ratings, said that the Saudi debt market is forecast to continue its growth momentum during 2026, to surpass $600 billion by year-end, backed by cross-sector financing needs, fiscal deficits and regulatory initiatives.
 

In exclusive statements to Argaam, Al-Natoor indicated that oil prices are seen falling to $63 per barrel between 2026 and 2027, while the Fed is likely to slash rates to 3.25% and 3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
 

Outstanding Saudi debt surpassed $520 billion, up nearly 21%, with sukuk accounting for 62%. Saudi Arabia was the largest dollar sukuk issuer in 2025, accounting for over 31% of global issuance, he added.
 

Al-Natoor also said that, in emerging markets excluding China, Saudi Arabia was both the largest dollar-debt issuer in 2025 with an 18% share, adding that the Kingdom was also the largest ESG debt issuer, accounting for a 26% share.
 

Saudi Arabia’s debt capital market remains exposed to sensitivity to oil prices, interest rate volatility, new Shariah requirements for sukuk, and geopolitical risks, which may affect financial balances, financing costs, and investor sentiment, according to the official.
 

He further indicated that access to both the Saudi riyal and US dollar markets offers advantages amid tighter riyal liquidity, noting that the absence of additional currency risk, along with the presence of a base of foreign investors for many issuers, supports issuance activities.
 

Al-Natoor also highlighted that, in 2025, the Kingdom’s dollar debt issuance surged by 49% to around $100 billion, with sukuk growing by 69%, outpacing bonds that rose by 40%. He noted that dollar issues represented 82% of total debt market, compared to 56% in 2024.