Oil could hit $200 if war lasts till June: Macquarie

Oil drilling rigs

Macquarie Group warned oil prices could surge to a record $200 per barrel if the war continues through June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

A conflict that stretches through the second quarter would result in historically high real prices, analysts said in a note, outlining a scenario with odds of 40%.

“If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” the analysts said.

They added that an alternative outlook, with probability of 60%, suggested the war may finish at the end of this month. “The timing of the re-opening of the strait, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities.”