The average profits of Tadawul-listed petrochemical companies are projected to drop 30 percent in the second quarter, compared with the same period last year, according to analysts’ projections.
The overall outlook for the sector is bearish as all companies are expected to post lower profit, except Saudi Kayan. Kayan, however, posted losses during the same quarter last year.
|
Q2-2015 Estimates vs Q2-2014 Actual |
||||
|
Difference (%) |
Q2-2015 E |
Q2-2014 A |
Number of analysts |
Company |
|
(50%) |
8 |
15.9 |
1 |
Chemanol |
|
(7%) |
184 |
197.0 |
4 |
Petrochem |
|
(28%) |
4670 |
6456.5 |
9 |
Sabic |
|
(9%) |
579 |
639.0 |
8 |
SAFCO |
|
(63%) |
153 |
408.3 |
6 |
Tasnee |
|
(11%) |
187 |
210.1 |
4 |
SIIG |
|
(83%) |
31 |
185.0 |
6 |
Sahara Petrochemical |
|
(61%) |
240 |
613.0 |
8 |
Yansab |
|
(46%) |
132 |
244.6 |
5 |
Sipchem |
|
+2% |
188 |
184.6 |
7 |
Advanced |
|
+105% |
7 |
(133.1) |
4 |
Kayan |
|
(70%) |
52 |
172.0 |
1 |
Petro Rabigh |
|
(30%) |
6431.0 |
9237.0 |
Total |
|
Analysts, however, expect second quarter profits to rise 46 percent in comparison to Q1-2015.
While forecasts for most companies are positive, analysts were negative about SAFCO (Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Company), YANSAB (Yanbu National Petrochemical Company) and Petro Rabigh.
|
Q2-2015 Estimates vs. Q1-2015 Actual (SAR mln) |
||||
|
Difference (%) |
Estimates |
Actual |
Number of analysts |
Company |
|
+153% |
8 |
(15.0) |
1 |
Chemanol |
|
+81% |
184 |
101.8 |
4 |
Petrochem |
|
+19% |
4670 |
3930.0 |
9 |
SABIC |
|
(2%) |
579 |
590.0 |
8 |
SAFCO |
|
+146% |
153 |
(332.5) |
6 |
Tasnee |
|
+49% |
187 |
125.7 |
4 |
SIIG |
|
+163% |
31 |
(49.5) |
6 |
Sahara Petrochemical |
|
(16%) |
240 |
285.1 |
8 |
Yansab |
|
+64% |
132 |
80.6 |
5 |
Sipchem |
|
+110% |
188 |
89.6 |
7 |
Advanced |
|
+101% |
7 |
(591.6) |
4 |
Kayan |
|
(75%) |
52 |
205.4 |
1 |
Petro Rabigh |
|
+46% |
6431.0 |
4419.6 |
Total |
|
Among research firms, Riyad Capital has covered the most number of companies, putting out forecasts for 11 petrochemical firms, while Albilad Capital and KASB Securities have covered only three each.
|
Breakdown of Forecasts – Q2-2015 |
|||||||||||
|
Average forecasts |
Bakheet |
Albilad Capital |
Alistithmar Capital |
Saudi Fransi Capital |
KSB Capital |
NCB Capital |
Aljazira Capital |
Riyad Capital |
Al Rajhi Capital |
Company |
|
|
8 |
- |
- |
- |
8 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Chemanol |
|
|
184 |
- |
- |
- |
160 |
- |
219 |
195 |
163 |
ـ |
Petrochem |
|
|
4670 |
4960 |
4452 |
4883 |
4845 |
3958 |
4784 |
4905 |
4755 |
4485 |
Sabic |
|
|
579 |
674 |
596 |
522 |
- |
648 |
574 |
559 |
527 |
535 |
SAFCO |
|
|
153 |
298 |
- |
- |
125 |
- |
116 |
129 |
90 |
161 |
Tasnee |
|
|
187 |
145 |
- |
- |
205 |
- |
199 |
- |
199 |
- |
SIIG |
|
|
31 |
28 |
- |
- |
46 |
- |
42 |
42 |
13 |
16 |
Sahara Petrochemical |
|
|
240 |
- |
284 |
399 |
115 |
450 |
91 |
167 |
238 |
172 |
Yansab |
|
|
132 |
- |
- |
- |
124 |
- |
131 |
126 |
125 |
153 |
Sipchem |
|
|
188 |
153 |
- |
211 |
204 |
- |
208 |
151 |
195 |
192 |
Advanced |
|
|
7 |
- |
- |
- |
100 |
- |
(12) |
(94) |
35 |
- |
Kayan |
|
|
52 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
52 |
- |
Petro Rabigh |
|
Most companies have not yet announced results. Advanced Petrochemical Co, however, posted SAR 243 million, or a 29 percent growth in second quarter profit, beating estimates.
|
Q2-2015 Profit vs. Estimates |
|||||
|
Change (%) |
Actual profits |
Average forecast |
Higher estimate |
Lower estimate |
Company |
|
+29% |
243.0 |
188 |
211 |
151 |
Advanced |
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