Saudi index up 13% in Q1 2019 on FTSE inclusion

01/04/2019 Argaam Special

Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) closed Q1 2019 on a positive note, rising by 13 percent, or 992 points (pts), to 8,819 pts - its highest close in three and half years - compared to 7,827 pts at the end of 2018.

The benchmark's gains in the first quarter are the biggest in more than two years since Q4 2016.

In Q1 2019, the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) was included in FTSE Russell and S&P DJI indices, which is expected to attract SAR 21.7 billion in inflows.

The inclusion of the Saudi equity market into the emerging markets benchmarks by MSCI and FTSE Russell will also translate into higher passive foreign inflows given explicit weighting assigned to Saudi Arabia.

During the first three months of 2019, MSCI and the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) announced the launch of the MSCI Tadawul 30 Index (MT30), a tradeable index.

MT30 ended the first quarter 15 percent, or 168 pts higher at 1.309 pts, compared to 1.141 pts last year.

TASI’s Performance Since 2016

Period

Opening (Points)

Closing (Points)

Variation

2016

Q1

6,912

6,223

(10%)

Q2

6,223

6,500

+4%

Q3

6,500

5,623

(13%)

Q4

5,623

7,210

+28%

2017

Q1

7,210

7,002

(3%)

Q2

7,002

7,426

+6%

Q3

7,426

7,283

(2%)

Q4

7,283

7,226

(1%)

2018

Q1

7,226

7,871

+9%

Q2

7,871

8,314

+6%

Q3

8,314

8,000

(4%)

Q4

8,000

7,827

+2%

2019

Q1

7,827

8,819

+13%

The Saudi benchmark rose by nearly 9 percent and 4 percent in January and March respectively in Q1, but it declined by 1 percent in February:

TASI Monthly Performance in Q1 2019

Month

Closing (points)

Variation (points)

Variation %

January

8,560

+733

+9%

February

8,493

(67)

(1%)

March

8,819

+326

+4%

Fifteen market sectors closed the quarter in the green, with Consumer Services adding 25 percent. Telecommunication Services edged up by 21 percent, Banks (19 percent) and Materials (10 percent).

Only five sectors ended in the negative territory, led by Pharma which fell 6 percent. It was followed by Media & Entertainment and Energy which retreated by 5 percent each.

Sector Performance

Sector

2018-end

Q1 2019

Variation (%)

Energy

4,849

4,629

(5%)

Basic materials

5,251

5,762

+10%

Capital goods

3,901

3,970

+2%

Commercial & Professional Services

4,137

4,135

(0.05%)

Transportation

3,477

3,734

+7%

Consumer durables

3,664

3,681

+0.5%

Consumer services

2,947

3,671

+25%

Media

10,178

9,719

(5%)

Retailing

6,866

7,132

+4%

Food Retailing

5,944

6,014

+1%

Food & Beverages

3,888

4,305

+11%

Healthcare

3,757

3,773

+0.4%

Pharma.

3,879

3,628

(6%)

Banks

7,214

8,578

+19%

Diversified financials

3,478

3,679

+6%

Insurance

4,175

4,110

(2%)

Telecom

5,406

6,526

+21%

Utilities

3,369

3,692

+10%

REITs

3,623

3,671

+1%

Real Estate Management

3,225

3,277

+2%

Market

7,827

8,819

+13%

The Saudi index recorded its three-month highest trading level of 8,827 pts, and its highest close of 8,819 pts on March 31. Meanwhile, the benchmark recorded its three-month lowest trading level and lowest close at 7,766 pts and 7,791 pts respectively on Jan. 2.

The gauge recorded its highest average daily trading value of around SAR 4.8 billion on March 14 (when Tadawul was included in FTSE Russell Index) and its lowest average daily trading value of SAR 1.63 billion on Jan. 1.

Trading Volumes in Q1 2019 (SAR bln)

Month

Q1 2018

Q1 2019

Daily average

Variation %

January

82.0

68.2

2.97

(17%)

February

67.8

47.0

2.35

(31%)

March

87.6

61.7

2.94

(30%)

Total

237.4

177.0

2.76

(25%)

The index gained more than 100 pts in four sessions, three of which are in Jan. and one in Feb.

The benchmark recorded the biggest daily decline of around 80 pts on Feb. 25.

The Saudi index reported a 25 percent fall in Q1 2019 trading turnover to SAR 177 billion compared to SAR 237.4 billion in Q1 2018:

Tadawul-listed stocks posted mixed performance in Q1 2019, as 109 stocks ended on an up note, while 63 ones closed the quarter in the red.

Al Tayyar Travel Group was the best performer, jumping by 43 percent. It was followed by Zain Saudi (33 percent) and Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) (31 percent).

Shares of Al Rajhi Bank, Samba Financial Group and Riyad Bank also rose by 22 percent - 24 percent in Q1.  National Industrialization Co. (Tasnee) and Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development gained 19 percent each in the three-month period.

Top 10 Gainers in Q1 2019 (SAR)

Company

2018 closing

Q1 2019 closing

Variation %

Al Tayyar

20.00

28.50

+43%

Zain

8.27

11.00

+33%

Steel Pipe

18.08

23.80

+32%

Mobily

16.58

21.76

+31%

Al Yamamah Steel

14.56

19.10

+31%

SISCO

10.84

13.80

+27%

Emaar

7.91

10.00

+26%

Southern Cement

36.85

46.00

+25%

Al Rajhi

87.50

108.40

+24%

Samba

31.40

38.90

+24%

Saudi Enaya Cooperative Insurance Co. (Enaya) was the biggest loser, plunging by 36 percent. It was followed by National Agriculture Marketing Co. (Thimar) and Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari Sons (Al Khodari) (19 percent). Shares of the National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia (Bahri) and National Agricultural Development Co. (Nadec) also slumped by 10 percent and 8 percent respectively in Q1.

Top 10 Losers in Q1 2019 (SAR)

Company

2018 closing

2019 closing

Variation %

Enaya

20.74

13.24

(36%)

Thimar

27.00

21.80

(19%)

Al Khodari

6.80

5.52

(19%)

Alasmak

78.30

64.30

(18%)

Amana*

16.89

13.94

(17%)

SPM

14.06

11.64

(17%)

Al Sorayai

14.80

12.30

(17%)

Anaam

14.44

12.14

(16%)

SIECO

88.50

77.10

(13%)

Gulf General

13.26

11.76

(11%)

*Capital change during the period.

The Saudi market heavyweights recorded strong performance in Q1, except for Jabal Omar Development Co. which dropped by 7 percent.

Al Rajhi Bank and Samba Financial Group gained 24 percent. Also, shares of Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) increased by 8 percent, while Saudi Telecom (STC) and National Commercial Bank (NCB) rose by 17 percent and 15 percent respectively in Q1.

Performance of Market’s Top Companies in Q1 2019 (SAR)

Company

Opening

Closing

Variation %

Al Rajhi

87.50

108.40

+24%

SABIC

116.20

125.00

+8%

NCB

47.85

55.00

+15%

SAMBA

31.40

38.90

+24%

Riyad

19.82

24.10

+22%

Fourteen Saudi-listed stocks ended the quarter below their par value - SAR 10 - led by Al Khodari at SAR 5.52 and Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co. (SAR 6.35).

Stocks Trading Below Nominal Value By End- Q1 2019

Company         

Stock Price (SAR)

Decline %

Al Khodari

5.52

(45%)

Amiantit

6.35

(37%)

Saudi Re

7.70

(23%)

Al Jouf Cement

7.98

(20%)

Hail Cement

8.35

(17%)

Najran Cement

8.49

(15%)

Shaker

8.65

(14%)

Kingdom Holding

8.75

(13%)

SIDC

8.81

(12%)

Northern Cement

8.82

(12%)

Aseer

9.14

(9%)

Takween

9.18

(8%)

Kowledge City

9.72

(3%)

Arabian Pipes

9.84

(2%)

 * Capital cut during the period

The Saudi REIT funds recorded mixed performance in Q1 2019, with nine funds in the red, while another seven closed in the green territory.

Performance REITs Listed in Q1 2019

REIT

Opening (SAR)

Closing (SAR)

Variation %

MEFIC REIT

8.15

9.60

+18%

Bonyan REIT

8.37

9.12

+9%

Mashaar REIT

7.14

7.51

+5%

Al Rajhi REIT

8.16

8.47

+4%

Jadwa Al Haramain REIT

7.50

7.68

+2%

Mulkia REIT

8.13

8.26

+2%

Al Ahli (1) REIT

7.76

7.80

+1%

Derayah REIT

8.38

8.37

--

Jadwa Saudi REIT

8.70

8.60

(1%)

Al Ma’athar REIT

7.61

7.50

(1%)

Taleem REIT

10.24

10.06

(2%)

Musharaka REIT

8.33

8.16

(2%)

Riyad REIT

7.85

7.67

(2%)

SEDCO Capital REIT

8.01

7.82

(2%)

Swicorp Wabel REIT REIT

8.56

8.13

(5%)

Aljazira REIT

14.42

13.26

(8%)


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