AI Summary
In this report, Argaam highlights the expected financial results of Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Maaden) for the fourth quarter of 2025, in addition to key events, quarterly sales, and performance and profitability indicators.
The company’s Q4 2025 revenue is forecast to increase by 2.98% year-on-year (YoY) to SAR 10.27 billion.
| Item | Q4 2024 |
Q1 2025 |
Q2 2025 |
Q3 2025 |
Q4 2025 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 9,969.18 | 8,510.91 | 9,415.77 | 10,011.32 | 10,266.13 |
| Change % | 24.08% | 15.82% | 31.07% | 24.44% | 2.98% |
| Income from Affiliate | (13.50) | 124.46 | 158.88 | 94.26 | NA |
| Change % | NA | 62.04% | 134.83% | 81.80% | NA |
| Item | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | (105.64) | 1,549.96 | 1,921.84 | 2,205.13 | 2,368.85 |
| Extraordinary income/expense | (1,444.47) | 0.00 | (4.00) | 0.00 | - |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items | 1,338.82 | 1,549.96 | 1,925.84 | 2,205.13 | - |
| EPS Before Unusual Items (Riyal/Share) | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.62 |
Key events in Q4 2025
- Maaden signed an agreement with Hancock to accelerate exploration efforts in the Kingdom. Maaden will hold 50.1% of the $5-million joint venture (JV), and Hancock will own 49.9%.
- Ministry of Energy approval was received to allocate feedstock for Phosphate 4 project. The project plans to produce about 1.1 million tons of ammonia and increase production of phosphate and specialty fertilizers by around 2.5 million tons, raising the company’s total production capacity to 12 million tons per annum.
- Average prices of the company’s key products—gold, aluminum, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and ammonia—rose YoY in Q4 2025. On a quarterly basis, all increased except diammonium phosphate, which declined compared to the previous quarter.
|
Commodity |
Q4 2024 |
Q3 2025 |
Q4 2025 |
Change YoY |
Change QoQ |
|
Gold |
2687.8 |
3476.9 |
4166.3 |
+55% |
+19.8% |
|
Aluminum |
2587.7 |
2554.7 |
2810.1 |
+8.6% |
+10% |
|
DAP |
626.2 |
796.2 |
726.9 |
+16.1% |
(8.7%) |
|
Ammonia |
432 |
335.8 |
465 |
+7.6% |
+38.5% |
Average forecast
Maaden is expected to report a 76.9% rise in net profit to SAR 2.37 billion in Q4 2025, compared to SAR 1.34 billion (before one-offs) in the year-earlier period, according to the average estimates by five research firms.
| Analyst | Million Riyals |
|---|---|
| SICO Bank | 2,654.00 |
| AlJazira Capital Company | 2,632.00 |
| U-Capital Co. | 2,228.40 |
| Riyad Capital | 1,961.00 |
| Average | 2,368.85 |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items (2024 - Q4) | 1,338.82 |
| Change % | 76.94% |
Performance and Profitability Indicators
The following table shows the stock performance trailing 12 months (TTM) and year to date, as well as its P/E and earnings per share:
| Item | The Company | TASI |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 19.69 % | 6.12 % |
| Change(12M) | 46.05 % | (10.24 %) |
| Previous Close | 72.95 | 11,195.45 |
| Recurring P/E (x) | 40.41 | 20.30 |
| EPS (TTM) before unusual items (SAR/Share) | 1.83 | - |
| P/E (TTM) | 51.09 |
| P/E Before Unusual Items (TTM) | 40.55 |
| P/BV | 4.76 |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| Market Cap. (M) | 284,657.52 |
| Return on Average Assets | 4.78 % |
| Return on Average Equity | 10.23 % |
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