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Q4 2025 earnings: What to expect for Advanced?
AI Summary
Content Summary: 
In this report, Argaam captures the expected results of Advanced Petrochemical Co. for the fourth quarter of 2025, in addition to its key events, as well as feedstock and end product prices.
Quarter Revenue Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q4 2024 |
Q1 2025 |
Q2 2025 |
Q3 2025 |
Q4 2025 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 579.39 | 614.13 | 698.41 | 1,017.75 | 1,060.50 |
| Change % | 1.50% | 91.18% | 7.60% | 58.29% | 83.04% |
| Income from Affiliate | (36.58) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | NA |
| Change % | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Quarter Net Income Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | (287.89) | 71.70 | 81.61 | 71.81 | 27.05 |
| Extraordinary income/expense | (212.08) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items | (75.81) | 71.70 | 81.61 | 71.81 | - |
| EPS Before Unusual Items (Riyal/Share) | (0.29) | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.10 |
Quarterly Profit and Revenue (M Riyal)
Feedstock prices:
Advanced mainly uses propane as feedstock to produce propylene, then converts it into polypropylene at its plant. In addition, it purchases 120,000 metric tons of propylene annually from SATORP to convert it into polypropylene.
Feedstock Prices ($/Ton)
Propylene
Propane
End Products
The price of polypropylene fell 8% YoY and 9% QoQ in Q4 2025.
Estimated EBITDA margin ($/ton)
According to Argaam Tools, the estimated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin, representing the weighted average of EBITDA margin for all company products, excluding the quantities produced by its associates in South Korea, rose by 37% YoY, but fell 25% QoQ in Q4 2025.
Average Estimates
Advanced is forecast toswing to a net profit of SAR 27.1 million in Q4 2025, against a net loss of SAR 75.8 million before one-offs, according to average estimates by two research houses.
Quarterly Actuals vs Estimates (M Riyal)
Average Estimate (M Riyal)
| Analyst | Million Riyals |
|---|---|
| SNB Capital Company | 39.10 |
| GIB Capital LLC | 15.00 |
| Average | 27.05 |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items (2024 - Q4) | (75.81) |
| Change % | 135.68% |
Stock Performance
| Item | The Company | TASI |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | (4.80 %) | 3.75 % |
| Change(12M) | (11.80 %) | (10.08 %) |
| Previous Close | 27.66 | 10,893.63 |
| Recurring P/E (x) | 48.16 | 20.16 |
| EPS (TTM) before unusual items (SAR/Share) | 0.57 | - |
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Valuation Data (Latest Share Price)
| P/E (TTM) | NEG |
| P/E Before Unusual Items (TTM) | 48.30 |
| P/BV | 2.30 |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| Market Cap. (M) | 7,212.41 |
| Return on Average Assets | (0.47 %) |
| Return on Average Equity | (1.98 %) |
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