Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to rise to $86 in Q3

Oil drilling rigs

Goldman Sachs lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 0.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.25 million bpd, despite confirming its expectation that demand growth will be strong, supported by jet fuel recovery, Reuters reported.

The modest China-driven demand growth downgrade for 2024 offsets a 0.1 million bpd cut in non-OPEC supply and an assumption of a higher US strategic petroleum reserve.

The healthy growth in consumer spending and strong demand in the summer will push the oil market to a deficit of 1.3 million bpd in the third quarter, bringing the price of Brent crude higher to $86 per barrel.

The bank expects the Brent crude prices to average $84 per barrel this year and the US crude to reach $79.

Goldman sees a $75-90 pbd ceiling in its base case of no geopolitical supply hits. Meanwhile, the bank maintains its 2025 average price forecast unchanged at $82 per barrel.

Additionally, OPEC's agreement on new production baselines through 2026 signals stronger cohesion, further reducing the likelihood of much lower prices, Goldman said.