Barclays cuts Brent forecasts for 2025, 2026

Barclays has cut its oil price forecasts for this year and next after OPEC+ accelerated its output increases for a second straight month, prompting analysts to expect the group will fully unwind its voluntary supply cuts within six months—well ahead of the original 18-month schedule.

The bank’s analysts lowered their Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $66 a barrel for 2025, and by $2 to $60 a barrel for 2026, citing expectations that OPEC’s oil output will rise by 390,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by 230,000 barrels per day in 2026.

"Tariff-related developments have certainly been a drag but the OPEC+ pivot has also been a significant driver of the move lower in oil prices of late," Barclays said in a note on Sunday, as reported by Reuters.

The bank also expects US crude production to fall by 100,000 bpd by the fourth quarter of 2025 and by 150,000 bpd in 2026.

On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to raise output in June by 411,000 bpd compared with May’s required production level—equivalent to three monthly hikes under its previous plan—following a similar decision at its April meeting.