Oil could surge to $90 if Strait of Hormuz closed: Citigroup

Oil drilling rigs

Brent crude could jump to around $90 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is shut, according to Citigroup Inc.

“Any closure of the Strait could lead to a sharp price spike,” analysts including Anthony Yuen and Eric Lee wrote in a note, citing the bank’s current bullish case scenario.

This is due to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for more than a quarter of global seaborne oil trade last year and in the first quarter of 2025.

Any disruption to Iranian crude exports could have a smaller price impact than expected, according to Citigroup. The country’s shipments have been falling and Chinese refineries are buying less, the bank said.