IEA expects slowest oil demand growth since 2009

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its supply growth forecast for this year while lowering its demand outlook, citing a significant slowdown in oil consumption in recent months.

The agency expects global oil demand in 2025 to average 103.7 million barrels per day (bpd), reflecting a growth of 704,000 bpd, down from its previous forecast of 724,000 barrels per day. This marks the slowest growth rate since 2009, excluding the pandemic year of 2020.

While demand is expected to grow by 722,000 bpd next year—compared to a previous estimate of 739,000 bpd—the IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026 to 1.3 million bpd, up from an earlier estimate of 1.1 million bpd.

The agency also said global supply is projected to rise by 2.1 million bpd in 2025, an upward revision of 300,000 bpd from its prior forecast.

It also noted that Russia’s exports of crude and oil products fell by 100,000 bpd in June, reaching 7.23 million bpd per day, amid ongoing challenges related to Western sanctions.