Citi says Brent may fall to $60 by year-end

Citi analysts expect Brent crude to drop to $60 a barrel by year-end, averaging $62 between Q2 and Q4 2026, citing rising OPEC+ output and China’s stockpiles.

The forecast comes after OPEC+ announced plans to unwind an additional 1.6 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts starting October 2025.

Citi said this could result in stock builds of 1.1 million bpd this year and 2.1 million bpd in 2026.

In a bearish case, the bank sees Brent falling below $60, and possibly to $50, on weaker global demand, faster non-OPEC supply growth and softer OPEC+ compliance.

A bullish scenario sees Brent cruse rising by 10%, exceeding topping $75 a barrel if geopolitical disruptions intensify.