Barclays sees Brent crude at $65 per barrel on average next year

Barclays expects Brent crude to average $65 per barrel next year, warning that a potential cyclical slowdown in demand remains a key downside risk to prices.

The bank also forecasts a supply surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026, although global inventories remain low.

It added that spare production capacity is limited and that geopolitical tensions continue to pose balanced risks to prices. However, in a weaker fundamentals scenario, OPEC+ may step in to adjust supply.

By contrast, OPEC’s monthly report released yesterday indicated that global oil supply and demand are expected to be nearly balanced next year, a view that diverges from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other institutions that project a significant supply surplus.