Goldman Sachs expects US economic growth to pick up in 2026

Goldman Sachs expects the US economy to remain resilient next year, with growth accelerating amid tax cuts, improved financial conditions, and the easing of challenges posed by tariffs and inflation.

In a forecast note for 2026, Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that US economic growth was hit this year by higher-than-anticipated tariffs, which raised the effective average tariff rate on imported goods.

Bank experts predict real GDP growth to reach 2.6% in 2026. This outlook is driven by several factors, including improved financial conditions resulting from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, as well as regulatory easing and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI).

This uptrend is bound to translate into a significant improvement in the US labor market, which witnessed a slowdown during 2025 amid economic uncertainty caused by tariffs and changes to immigration laws.