JPMorgan: Gold may hit $8,500 on higher portfolio allocations

JPMorgan market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou expects gold prices to rise to between $8,000 and $8,500 an ounce in the coming years, as retail investors increasingly turn to the precious metal as a hedge against US equity market declines, rather than relying on fixed-income assets.

Panigirtzoglou said retail investors have scaled back exposure to long-dated bonds since 2022, when returns from traditional portfolios such as 60/40 funds—comprising 60% equities and 40% bonds—deteriorated sharply after the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates, triggering simultaneous declines in both stocks and bonds, according to Barron’s.

He added that investor frustration intensified last year following a market sell-off on “Liberation Day” in April 2025, when former President Donald Trump’s threat to impose sweeping tariffs sparked broad-based selling across equities and bonds.

Panigirtzoglou noted that gold’s share of retail investor portfolios has risen to about 3%, from around 1% a decade ago, and is expected to climb to 4.6% over time. He said this additional demand could push gold prices into the $8,000–$8,500 per ounce range.

However, he cautioned that the path toward $8,500 is likely to be volatile, noting that momentum-driven traders have pushed gold and silver prices to overextended levels, increasing the risk of near-term profit-taking or a pullback toward long-term averages.