IEA raises forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026

IEA raises outlook on global oil demand growth in 2026, 2027

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecasts for global oil supply growth for both this year and next, while keeping its consumption estimates unchanged.

In its monthly oil market report, the agency said it expects global oil supply to reach 107.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, an upward revision of around 100,000 bpd from last month’s outlook.

Global oil demand increased to 108.8 million bpd in 2027, compared to 108.2 million bpd in its previous estimate, while keeping its consumption projections unchanged for the current and next year at 104.8 million and 106.1 million barrels per day, respectively.

Despite the expected increase in the global supply surplus, the IEA raised its forecast for the average Brent crude price this year to $57.69 per barrel, compared to $55.87 previously, before declining to $53 per barrel in 2027.

The IEA expects US crude oil production to stabilize at a record level of 13.6 million barrels per day this year and raised its forecast for natural gas output to 110 billion cubic feet per day.