War triggers record global oil supply disruption: IEA

01:35 PM (Mecca time) Argaam
Logo ofThe International Energy Agency (IEA)

Logo of The International Energy Agency (IEA)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its March 2026 report that the military conflict in the Middle East caused the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, as flows of crude and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz declined sharply.

 

The agency expects global oil supply to fall by 8 million bpd in March, with the shortfall only partly offset by higher output from non-OPEC+ producers, including Kazakhstan and Russia.

 

The IEA forecasts global supply growth of only 1.1 million bpd for full-year 2026.

 

The agency also cut its forecasts for global oil demand growth by more than 1 million barrels per day on average in March and April due to widespread flight cancellations.

 

It also lowered its 2026 demand growth outlook by 210,000 bpd to 640,000 barrels per day, citing the negative impact of higher oil prices on fragile global economic prospects.

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