Hormuz closure may slash oil supply by 14M bpd: Barclays

26/03/2026 Argaam
Oil barrels

Oil barrels

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz may remove 13-14 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from global markets, Barclays Bank said in a research note today, March 26.

 

This might be the biggest geopolitical shock to energy since 1990, it added.

 

Exports from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu and the UAE’s Fujairah have surged, but supply shortfalls would persist if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

 

Barclays said that a return to normal shipping by early April would keep Brent crude around $85 per barrel in 2026, while disruptions through April could push prices to $100, and an extension to May could lift Brent to $110.

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