JPMorgan warns oil could top $150 by mid-May

JPMorgan says oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel in Q2 before normalizing in the second half of 2026

JPMorgan warned oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel if energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist until mid-May.

In a note on April 2, analysts said their base case assumes shipping flows will be restored through negotiations after a period of supply pressure and declining inventories.

Under this scenario, oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel in Q2 2026 before normalizing in the second half of the year.

In alternative scenarios, prices could rise to $120–$130 per barrel in the near term.

The bank added that the scale and duration of any price spike will be key in determining the severity of the broader macroeconomic shock, raising risks of demand destruction and a potential recession if the disruption continues.