AI Summary
Logo of Saudi Aramco
Saudi Aramco expects global oil demand to reach a record 107.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, an increase of 1.1 million bpd from 2025, fueled by demand for transport fuels and petrochemicals.
Gas
Recent developments reflect an acceleration in gas expansion projects to boost operating cash flows and diversify revenue streams.
The company’s key milestones include the start-up of the first phase of the Jafurah gas project by the end of 2025, and the launch of the Tanajib gas plant. Aramco also continued discoveries that support gas reserve replacement rates exceeding 100%.
Aramco has also strengthened its supply network by finalizing the $11.1 billion Jafurah midstream gas processing deal, alongside securing around 3.2 million tons per year of LNG supplies, thereby supporting supply stability and enhancing the flexibility of the gas value chain.
In parallel, the company is proceeding with expansion projects scheduled through 2028, including upgrades to gas processing facilities, compression systems and the Master Gas System (MGS). These investments are expected to raise associated gas liquids output by about 80%, supporting additional operating cash flows estimated at $12–15 billion annually by 2030.
Downstream
The segment’s strategy focuses on maximizing value through vertical integration and global expansion. Around 53% of the crude oil produced is directed to this segment to better capitalize on the value chain and enhance profit margins through integration across refining, production and marketing activities.
The company continues to expand its liquids-to-chemicals projects while maintaining capital discipline. It targeted a production capacity of about 1.8 million bpd in 2025, while adding more than 0.4 million bpd from projects under development, such as Shaheen, Amiral, and Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Company (HAPCO). Meanwhile, net refining capacity rose to around 4.2 million bpd.
On commercial expansion, Aramco is strengthening its global presence by expanding its retail network to around 18,000 service stations in 2025, alongside acquiring strategic stakes in fuel distribution companies and developing its brands.
These initiatives are expected to deliver additional operating cash flows of $8–10 billion annually by 2030.
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Project Updates |
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Project |
Updates/ Remarks |
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Gas |
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Second Phase of Jafurah |
Both are on track and are expected to be completed in 2027. |
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Expansion of Fadhili |
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Third Phase of MGS |
On track and is expected to add an estimated gas transmission capacity of 3.15 billion standard cubic feet per day by 2028. |
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Oil |
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Berri field |
Construction was completed and water injection commenced. The project is expected to add 250,000 bpd of capacity. |
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Zuluf field |
On track and is expected to process around 600,000 bpd of crude through a central processing facility in 2026. |
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Dammam field |
Engineering and construction is progressing, with an additional 50,000 bpd expected upon completion in 2027. |
Financial Highlights
Aramco’s net income and adjusted net income declined quarter-on-quarter, on lower sales due to weaker oil prices.
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Key Financial Data (SAR bln) |
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Item |
Q4 2024 |
Q3 2025 |
Q4 2025 |
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Revenue |
428.59 |
418.16 |
416.29 |
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Net Income |
83.78 |
101.02 |
66.63 |
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Adjusted Net Income* |
95.81 |
106.00 |
94.00 |
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Average realized crude oil prices ($/bbl) |
73.1 |
70.1 |
64.1 |
Aramco generated SAR 153.16 billion in cash flow from operating activities, while free cash flow (FCF) rose to SAR 103.02 billion.
Meanwhile, the gearing ratio declined to 3.8% in Q4 2025, from 4.5% in the year-earlier period and 6.3% in Q3 2025.
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Financial Highlights (SAR bln) |
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Item |
Q4 2024 |
Q3 2025 |
Q4 2025 |
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Cash flow from operating activities |
134.28 |
135.45 |
153.16 |
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Capex |
53.19 |
47.08 |
50.15 |
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FCF |
81.09 |
88.36 |
103.02 |
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Gearing ratio |
4.5% |
6.3% |
3.8% |
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