Iran’s crude exports to rise 60% YoY in May

Iran’s oil exports are set to surge by nearly 60 percent in May, compared to a year ago, Reuters reported, citing a source with knowledge of the country’s crude lifting plans.

The country’s May shipments will likely jump to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.3 million bpd during the same month last year, when Iranian exports were constrained by international sanctions.

Saudi Arabia is said to feel the rise in Iranian exports most keenly, as the oil market becomes a key battleground between the two countries for regional supremacy.

The kingdom plans to boost production in the coming months to squeeze Iran, said Ian Bremmer, president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, who spoke recently with executives and a member of the ruling family.

Increasing production could also boost returns for the planned Saudi Aramco initial public offering (IPO) and help ensure a smooth succession for deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, Bremmer said.

Increases of as much as one million bpd were mentioned, he added, though he was skeptical about the higher targets.

“The challenge against Iran will mean an expanded effort to work with Asian economies,” he added.

This will mean investing in refineries in Asian markets, which is “something the Iranians can't do, given both their resource limitations and the remaining sanctions environment,” he explained.