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The International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth, largely citing weak demand in developed OECD nations.
Oil demand growth is now seen at 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), from the previously 1.2 million-bpd estimate, down140,000 barrels versus last month’s projections, the Paris-based organization said in its latest monthly report today, May 15.
On the other hand, the IEA raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.2 million bpd, from 1.1 million bpd earlier indicated in the March report.
The lower 2024 oil demand forecast came against the backdrop of weak deliveries of black gold shipments, especially in Europe. This was fueled by weaker demand from OECD countries during the first quarter of this year.
This was linked to poor industrial activity and a mild winter sapping gasoil consumption, particularly in Europe where a declining share of diesel cars was already undercutting consumption.
European gasoil demand fell by 140,000 bpd in the first three months of the year, after shedding 210,000 bpd in 2023, according to the report.
The total global oil supply is now poised to grow by 580,000 bpd to a record average of 102.7 million bpd this year. Non-OPEC+ nations are still set to lead global supply, the agency said, with production expected to grow by 1.4 million bpd this year and next.
IEA also highlighted that OPEC+ production is forecast to fall by 840,000 bpd this year, assuming that the group extends its voluntary output cuts.
According to the report, global oil stocks added 34.6 million barrels last March, with marine stocks rising to a fresh peak during the post-pandemic era, compared to a drop in land stocks of 5.1 million barrels — the lowest since at least 2016.
The IEA's oil demand projections continue to remain below OPEC's, as the latter forecasts global oil-demand growth of 2.2 million and 1.8 million bpd in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
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