IEA: Diesel crisis to persist through 2027

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that tight diesel markets and severe disruptions to energy supplies will persist into the second half of 2027, as supply struggles to meet global demand amid the impact of the war in Iran on international shipping and inventories falling to record lows.

In its monthly oil market report, the agency said global oil demand will decline by 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 due to disruptions caused by the war in Iran and higher prices. Meanwhile, global oil supply is projected to fall by 5.8 million bpd on an annual basis before recovering and increasing by 7.7 million bpd in 2027.

The data showed that global diesel exports fell by 700,000 bpd year-on-year in September, while wholesale prices reached record highs of approximately $220 per barrel in Europe and the United States and more than $200 per barrel in Singapore.

Amid efforts to contain the fuel crisis, the IEA said the recent agreement between the United States and Russia is unlikely to have a material impact on global markets due to constraints on Russian refining capacity.