Bain & Company expects Saudi retail sector to grow 4-5% annually

Cyrille Fabre, Head of Consumer Products and Retail Practices – Middle East, Bain & Company

The retail sector in Saudi Arabia is expected to grow by 4-5% annually, given the projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth, Cyrille Fabre, Head of Consumer Products and Retail Practices – Middle East, Bain & Company, told Argaam.

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Speaking on the sidelines of the Retail Leadership Summit (RLS), he stated that Saudi Arabia witnessed a recovery in the retail sector in 2023, as consumer spending rose by 6.7%, after difficult last few years marked by value-added tax (VAT), COVID, and inflation.

Some categories like restaurant and grocery grew even faster, while others such as fashion, jewelry, and electronics were more stagnant.

The growth in spending on entertainment means that consumers have less money to spend on retail, Fabre added.

Saudi Arabia’s retail market is changing qualitatively due to the transformation of consumers and purchasing behaviors, quick changes in channels, and modernization of grocery from traditional trade.

He explained that the consumer landscape is changing in terms of segment diversity (elderly, young people, and visitors), consumer interest in value (discounts and private brands), and the pursuit of more convenience (digital channels, with e-commerce growing 20%).

Fabri said that discounters are emerging and gaining market share.

In 2023, grocery grew by 4%, while top Saudi listed retailers expanded by 8%.

The recent announcement of the acquisition of Al Raya for Food Stuffs Company JSC by Tamimi Markets Co. is a sign of sector consolidation, he highlighted.

Despite market growth expectations, retailers face challenges on rising cross-border e-commerce operators and higher costs.

He indicated that some categories, such as fashion, require some government intervention, as they are particularly affected.

He pointed out that Saudi retail is attracting increasing foreign investment due to growth potential and openness.

In the latest report by the Ministry of Investment of Saudi Arabia (MISA), retail and wholesale was the second highest sector in foreign direct investment flows.