Decoding The Enigma

Islam Zween, Argaam CEO

By Islam Zween

The codebreakers were not just unravelling a tapestry of encrypted messages but grappling with the ever-shifting sands of the Enigma code that the Germans wielded like a weapon. Each day brought with it not just the challenge of uncovering existing patterns but the exhilarating unpredictability of anticipating fresh alterations in the code's complexities, elements that could change with the dawn of a new day.

This resilience and relentless pursuit of meeting a challenge stood out as one of the most memorable scenes in the acclaimed American film The Imitation Game, capturing the intense pressure the team faced as they raced against time to decipher messages that felt as elusive as shadows.

Fast forward to 2025, and a similar veil of unpredictability looms over the global economic landscape, which looks replete with surprises after the election of President Donald Trump. His decisions do send ripples through media and markets alike, making the task of strategic forecasting seem almost never ending, as just when one believes they have achieved clarity, new developments reset the situation.

Just as code breakers had to figure out the changes in the Enigma code during World War II, leaders and strategists today have to deal with that particular reality and what the future holds due to political and economic developments.

In light of the prevailing unpredictability in today’s world, we must critically assess whether our strategic contingency planning is robust enough to navigate the complexities ahead. The recently released annual report of the 2030 Vision rightly emphasizes the significant achievements and the extensive progress made at different sectors under Vision 2030, which has transformed the kingdom and placed it in a markedly improved position on the global stage.

But have we truly learned from past events? While these impressive achievements are commendable, they also highlight the importance of maintaining a vigilant mindset and ensuring that contingency plans are in place to address any future uncertainties.

Perhaps Trump's recent visit to the Kingdom is the best example of the Kingdom's strategic approach to this special reality. I read the Saudi-American summit beyond the language of numbers and the volume of investments that may reach $1trillion. Rather, I focus on how the Kingdom is focused on building a gradually expanding network of economic, political and security relations with the most powerful country in the world economically and militarily.

By fostering diverse and enduring relationships, especially with the United States and other countries such as China, the Kingdom is hedging against volatility in the economic and geopolitical landscape, and this interconnected network enhances its resilience in the face of challenges, enabling Saudi Arabia to quickly adapt to the concept of contingency.

Such proactive engagement and exceptional partnerships position the country to protect its national interests, preserve its stability, and maintain its influence on the regional and global stage, beyond mere financial gains or diplomatic statements. The Kingdom’s economic resilience is proving its mettle, day in day out.

Resilience is defined as the ability of a disrupted system to return to the pre-disruption state, which in this case represented in the on-and-off tariffs escalation between the US and China mainly. In project management and strategic planning, this involves anticipating potential disruptions and developing robust contingency plans to address them effectively.

Contingency planning not only mitigates financial uncertainty but also ensures operational continuity, enabling organizations to adapt swiftly to changing market conditions and sustain their growth trajectory.

As Saudi Arabia gears up for high-profile events like the FIFA World Cup in 2034, the need for an accurate assessment of time contingencies and cost of some materials becomes critical. Traditional risk assessment methods might not fully capture how such geopolitical disruptions influence local projects.

That’s why a recovery phase is a critical component of contingency planning, as it focuses on restoring normal operations and stability after a disruption. A pertinent example is how Saudi Arabia responded to the COVID-19 pandemic, effectively navigating the recovery phase by implementing robust health protocols, accelerating digital transformation, and diversifying its economy. The country established nationwide vaccination campaigns, integrated technology in healthcare delivery, and promoted remote work to mitigate the pandemic's impact.

Effective recovery planning during this period not only minimized downtime and financial losses but also reinforced the nation’s resilience against future challenges, showcasing the importance of strategic recovery efforts in contingency planning in the years to come.

By prioritizing this phase, different sectors – including the energy sector which’s exempted from the sweeping US tariffs - can foster a proactive culture that values preparedness, ultimately enhancing their ability to navigate unforeseen challenges.

We must try hard to ‘decode’ the unpredictable signals in a highly dynamic political and economic global landscape. The journey of resilience requires not only acknowledging past disruptions but also weaving them into the fabric of today’s strategic planning. In an ever-changing context and a world that only accepts the strong and adaptable, resilience remains the smartest language of survival.