OPEC raises oil demand outlook on fossil fuel dominance

Logo of OPEC

OPEC raised its long-term oil demand forecast by nearly 3 million barrels per day (bpd), driven by stronger growth in India and the Middle East, along with a shifting geopolitical landscape amid the growing role of fossil fuel in the global energy mix.

According to 2025 OPEC's World Oil Outlook (WOO) report released on Thursday, oil demand is expected to rise by 18.5% to 122.9 million bpd by 2050, up from the 120.1 million bpd forecast in 2024’s report.

The report expects average global demand to hit 105 million bpd in 2025.

“There is no peak oil demand in sight,” said OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, reiterating the same phrase he used in 2024’s report and underscoring the OPEC’s ongoing rejection of predictions that oil consumption will peak before 2030.

India is expected to account for the largest share of long-term demand growth, with OPEC forecasting that the country’s oil consumption will double as of 2024 to stand at 13.7 million bpd by 2050.

Additionally, demand is projected to rise gradually in OECD countries to 46.6 million bpd by 2030 from 45.7 million bpd in 2024, before declining to 37.2 million bpd by 2050.

OPEC estimates that $18.2 trillion in investments will be needed to meet oil demand through 2050, up from $17.4 trillion in its 2024 report, warning that underinvestment poses a risk to future supply security and market stability.

Global oil output is expected to reach 113.6 million bpd by 2030 and 123 million bpd by 2050.

US output is projected to peak at 23 million bpd by 2030 before falling to 19.6 million bpd by 2050, the report said.